War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics / Jeffrey A. Friedman.
Series: Bridging the gap: ; Oxford scholarship online: Publisher: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, 2019Description: 1 online resource : illustrations (black and white).Content type: text | still image Media type: computer Carrier type: online resourceISBN: 9780190938055 (ebook) :.Subject(s): International relations -- Decision making
| National security -- Decision making | Uncertainty -- Political aspects | United States -- Foreign relations -- Decision making | National security -- United States -- Decision making | Uncertainty -- Political aspects -- United StatesAdditional Physical Form: Print version : 9780190938024DDC classification: 327.1019 Online resources: Oxford Scholarship Online | Click here to access online Summary: 'War and Chance' analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the text shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision.
| Item type | Current library | Class number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ebook | House of Lords Library - Palace Online access | 1 | Available |
Previously issued in print: 2019.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
'War and Chance' analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the text shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision.
Specialized.
Description based on online resource; title from home page (viewed on March 22, 2019).